Asian Macro Initial Thoughts; US markets closed so lighter trading volumes. Trump takes power; 100 executive orders expected. Davos starts but not the main focus today. (2025)

Overview
A normal trading day in Asia, but US markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr day; expect trading volumes to be light. Trading likely to be cautions as Davos gets underway (the theme is Collaboration for the intelligence age) and Trump’s inauguration is in focus. Interesting to note China’s vice-president Han Zheng will attend, marking the first time a top Chinese official has attended a US inauguration.

Many will be watching to see what initial announcements and executive orders Trump makes; to try and get a better idea of what policy will be. One expectation is that he will announce an energy emergency in order to cut energy bills. Other orders up to around 100 are expected to reverse many of Biden’s actions. FT reports '“Their intent is to do shock and awe so that their opponents’ heads are spinning,” said Stephen Myrow, managing partner at Beacon Policy Advisors, a consultancy, and a former George W Bush administration official.’ It also says 'Trump’s first steps will serve as a test of how far he believes he can act unilaterally without Congress, given his view that US presidents should have wide-ranging authorities compared with other branches of government.’ So some of those orders could be challenged in the courts.

Some people will watch with some trepidation as Trump has indicated that he will be seeking retribution on those that he thinks have crossed him..

TikTok went off over the weekend, briefly but then started to re-appear after assurances from President Elect Trump; it is now expected that he will give it a 90 day extension. He mentioned that his approval is subject to Tik Tok becoming a joint venture with an American company.

Chinese growth in focus; the official announcement on Friday was the China had made its annual target but many ordinary citizens are not feeling it. The question is what will Beijing do counter that and whatever that is….. will it work.

The IMF said global growth is expected to increase slightly this year while remaining stuck below its pre-pandemic average, the IMF said Friday, flagging the growing economic divide between the United States and European countries. In an update to its flagship World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund said it expects global growth to hit 3.3 percent this year, up 0.1 percentage point from its previous forecast in October, and to remain at 3.3 percent in 2026. The IMF expects the global inflation rate to continue decelerating, reaching 4.2 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2026, with prices cooling faster in advanced economies than in emerging markets.

Housekeeping
On Monday morning I will be on RTHK’s Money Talk with host Andrew Work and Hao Zhou, Chief Economist at GTJAI. If you want to raise a question or just listen to the show please click here https://www.rthk.hk/radio/radio3/programme/money_talk

Weekend headlines and comments can be found in the post ‘Things to know before trading Asia on Monday’
https://substack.com/home/post/p-155157953?source=queue

And Macro data impacting Asia this week can be found at
https://substack.com/home/post/p-155134990?source=queue

On Thursday afternoon I was on RTHK’s 'The close’ with host Jeff Cheung and Priyanka Kishore of Asia Decoded; if you want listen to the programme you can find it here: https://www.rthk.hk/radio/radio3/programme/the_close

For leading independent research, click on http://ERI-C.com it is a great platform where independent research vendors list their research and trading analysis. ERI-C is free to access, you can browse different independent research providers, most offer free trials; so worth a look.

Mark Tinker recently posted the Latest thoughts from Market Thinker - ’P(review) The return of Domestic Politics matters as much if not more than GeoPolitics for 2025. Reviews last years calls and looks forward at the issues likely to face investors in 2025.

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MARKET INDICATIONS

New Zealand
Market dipped on the open to retest the 13,000 support and then bounced back to 13,100 before trading sideways 13,075/50
No Data due

Australia
Market opened 7pts higher initially in the staggered open after futures indicated up 28 points 0.35% following the US market close. Friday’s speculation over a deal between Rio and Glencore now on ice as FT reported that the talks are 'on ice'. But South32 production up and has maintained its FY25 guidance +VE. Energy names weak as oil prices eased miners mixed as gold price also fell on Friday. So upside limited. Star Entertainment in focus as it continues to burn cash, even as it manages to lower expenses.
No Data due

Japan
Nikkei Futures +359pts 0.9% at 38,810
Chicago Futures up 15pts 0.04% at 38,880
Yen closed 156.3 in US. Opened 156.34 in early trades
Data due 10 minutes before market opens
Machinery Orders Nov MoM vs 2.1% Oct (F/cast is 0.3%)
Machinery Orders Nov YoY vs 5.6% Oct (F/cast is 5%)
Later
Capacity Utilisation Nov MoM vs 2.6% Oct (F/cast is 0.2%)
Industrial Production Nov MoM vs 2.8% Oct (F/cast is -2.3%)
Tertiary Industry Index Nov MoM vs 1.4% Oct (F/cast is 0.1%)

S Korea
To open higher following the US markets on Friday with tech in focus. On Friday shares ended slightly lower on foreign selling and retail investors were buying; with China's better-than-expected economic growth falling short of boosting investor sentiment. The Korean won fell against the US dollar. Volumes remain moderate. Auto’s & Shipbuilder’s led the declines.
Data due
10 year KTB Auction vs 2.665% prior

Taiwan
Expect market to open higher following the US close on Friday.
No Data Due

China
Market to open higher; Golden Dragon China Index closed up 209pts 3.18% at 6,776 but upside may be limited as Trump takes over the US administration.
Yuan weakness remains adding to the pressure on Beijing.
Data Due 15 minutes before the open
Loan Prime Rate 1 year Jan vs 3.1% Dec (F/cast is 3.1%)
Loan Prime Rate 5 year Jan vs 3.6% Dec (F/cast is 3.6%)

Hong Kong
HSI to open higher after ADRs closed up 246pts 1.24% at 19,829 with only SHKP and CK Hutch in the red. Recent increased short selling could prompt a short squeeze on the open.
Data Due after market
Unemployment Rate Dec vs 3.1% Nov (F/cast is 3.1%)

Macau - No Events scheduled this week

Singapore - Data Due

Malaysia - Data Due
Balance of Trade Dec vs MYR 15.29B Nov (F/cast is 16.5B)
Exports Dec YoY vs 4.1% Nov (Consensus is 9%)
Imports Dec YoY vs 1.6% Nov (Consensus is 3.3%)

Indonesia - No Data Due
Philippines - No Data Due
Thailand - No Data Due
Cambodia - No Data Due
Vietnam - No Data Due
India - Data Due

Europe Data Due
Eurozone
Construction Output, Eurogroup Meeting
Germany PPI 3 & 9 month Bubill Auction
France 12, 3 & 6 month BFT Auction
United Kingdom No data due

United States
Futures indicating
Dow -45pts, S&P 0.07%, NDX 0.07%
No Data Due Market closed but watch for Trump’s executive orders.

HEADLINES & NEWS

JAPAN

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Sunday stressed the importance of finding alternative financial resources for a proposed hike in the minimum annual taxable income from the current ¥1.03 million . “We cannot find an answer unless we discuss how to finance the hike in the threshold,” Ishiba, also president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said in a television debate program, which was also attended by heads of other political parties. The LDP-led ruling bloc is talking with the opposition Democratic Party for the People on raising the threshold, in a bid to obtain the DPFP’s cooperation in enacting the government’s draft budget for fiscal 2025, which starts in April. The LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, lost their combined House of Representatives majority in the October 2024 general election for the all-important lower chamber of the Diet, Japan’s parliament.

Toyota Motor Corp is considering shifting some production at its central Japan home ground to other areas in a realignment aimed at addressing a labor shortage and natural disaster risks, sources familiar with the matter said. One of the reorganization plans under consideration is to increase its production capacity in the Tohoku and Kyushu regions, located in the country's northeast and southwest, respectively, by 200,000 units each by around the early 2030s while cutting its output in the Tokai region, where it is headquartered, the sources said. After the revamp, the automaker would be able to build 600,000 units each in Tohoku and Kyushu, while production in Tokai would be brought down from the current 2.2 million units, with its total output capacity in Japan left unchanged at around 3 million cars. The plan is subject to changes depending on market conditions and may not materialize, the sources said. Toyota currently operates 14 auto factories in Japan. The consideration comes as a government panel estimates there is an approximately 80 percent chance that a megaquake with a magnitude 8 to 9 will occur in the Nankai Trough -- an ocean-floor trench along the country's Pacific coast where the Eurasian and Philippine Sea tectonic plates meet -- within the next 30 years, with areas such as central Japan expected to suffer significant damage.

Japan's tourism boom prices out domestic business travelers After traveling to Tokyo for meetings, Yoshiki Kojima's IT company employees crash out in a capsule hotel, as a tourism boom makes regular rooms too pricey for business trips. A weak yen is attracting more visitors than ever to Japan, with national tourism figures for 2024, released Wednesday, expected to top 2019's record of nearly 32 million. The occupancy rate in 2024 for business hotels in Tokyo run by major operator Fujita Kanko was 88 percent, and average rates were up 26 percent from last year, the company said. "Currently, demand is concentrated in major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka, so we are hoping that this will spread to Sapporo, Naha and other smaller regions," the firm said.

Casio Computer Co. announced on Thursday that it will release a new calculator model on Jan. 30, commemorating the 60th anniversary this year of the launch of the company’s first calculator. It features a simple design, with the solar panel which serves as its power source moved to the top edge, and is made of environmentally friendly materials. Casio has incorporated many years of expertise into it, such as by changing the shape of the buttons to make them easier to press.

The education ministry is considering giving digital textbooks, which are currently used as substitute teaching materials for paper textbooks, an official status to be used as school textbooks, according to sources. The ministry is also aiming to introduce a new system to allow individual boards of education to choose from either paper or digital textbooks, the sources said. The move is likely to spark debate as it would drastically transform what form textbooks — the foundation of the country’s school education system — should take. The Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Ministry is expected to present the points at issue, including such proposals, to a working group of the Central Council for Education at a meeting scheduled for Tuesday.

SOUTH KOREA

Law enforcement agencies on Sunday condemned the violent protests at the Seoul Western District Court, the first-ever riot targeting the judiciary in South Korea, vowing to restore order and hold those responsible accountable. Sparked by the formal arrest of President Yoon Suk Yeol earlier in the day, the attacks have sent shockwaves through the country. After the court granted a warrant for Yoon’s extended detention at 2:50 a.m. Sunday, protesters forcefully entered the court by climbing over walls and smashing windows with ashtrays, stones, plastic chairs and trash at around 3:10 a.m. The protesters also assaulted police officials stationed around the building by spraying fire extinguishers and striking them with shields and batons seized from the police. Around 30 police officials were injured in the process of restraining the protesters, according to police. After around 1,400 riot police were mobilized, the rioters inside and outside the court were brought under control as of 6 a.m.

Hyundai Motor Company said Sunday it has unveiled concept versions of its electric three-wheeler and micro four-wheeler at India’s Bharat Mobility Global Expo, ramping up its expansion efforts in the world’s third-largest car market. Recognizing the widespread popularity of micromobility in India, where ultra-compact vehicles are often favored for last-mile commuting on congested roads, the Korean auto giant has vowed to offer enhanced driving performance and safety compared to competing models. The advanced features of these vehicles include angular windshields for better visibility and collision protection, flat floors and a wide wheelbase to improve passenger comfort, which typically falls short in other cars in the same segment. With its focus on developing vehicles tailored to withstand India’s high temperatures and heavy rainfall, Hyundai Motor is also considering using heat-reducing gloss black paint on the roof as well as water-resistant materials for seats, steering wheels, dashboards and other interior surfaces.

Korean game companies are gearing up for a breakout year with a slate of highly anticipated new titles readying for release to woo gaming fans across the globe, as the companies look to expand markets beyond Korean borders. Nexon and Krafton are poised to carry on positive momentum in fresh genres this year after clocking in another year of success thanks to hit titles such as side-scrolling action role playing game Dungeon & Fighter and battle royale shooter PUBG: Battlegrounds, respectively. Coming off of its 30th anniversary last year and likely having logged its best annual sales of over 4 trillion won ($2.7 billion), Nexon will launch The First Berserker: Khazan, a hardcore action RPG based on Dungeon & Fighter, on March 28 globally. The action-packed RPG will be released for PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S and personal computers, as the game developer aims to win the hearts of console gamers who make up a large chuck of Western markets. A demo version was released last weeks to build anticipation and keep fans engaged. Krafton, which is expected to post record annual revenue and operating profit for 2024, is betting big on its upcoming life simulation game inZOI, as the game-maker recently announced a partnership with Nvidia, the global chip leader in high-end graphics processing units, at CES 2025 in Las Vegas earlier this month.

Hana Financial Group Chairman Ham Young-joo and top executives of Bain Capital, a leading global private equity firm, recently met in Seoul to discuss expanding bilateral collaboration. Bain Capital’s delegation included co-managing partners John Connaughton and David Gross, as well as partner Lee Jung-woo. The discussions revolved around strengthening communication to facilitate increased investment in the Korean market, according to Hana Financial officials Sunday. Hana Financial and Bain Capital established their partnership in 2016 when the private equity firm undertook its inaugural acquisition financing here with the Korean banking group’s support. Since then, the two sides have executed several landmark deals, cementing a high level of mutual trust.

TAIWAN

The proportion of Taiwan’s exports directed to China, including Hong Kong, declined by more than 12 percentage points last year compared with its peak in 2020, the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday last week. The decrease reflects the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains, driven by escalating trade tensions between Beijing and Washington. Data compiled by the ministry showed China and Hong Kong accounted for 31.7 percent of Taiwan’s total outbound sales last year, a drop of 12.2 percentage points from a high of 43.9 percent in 2020. In addition to increasing trade conflicts between China and the US, the ministry said the decline reflected a weakening Chinese economy caused by a fragile property home market and falling domestic demand. The ministry said a fall in exports to China also came as the Chinese government intensified efforts to push for the “Made in China 2025” initiative to replace imported goods with those made domestically. The reduction in exports last year was largely made up of petrochemical, base metal and machine tool suppliers due to a supply glut in the Chinese market, the ministry said. Taiwan’s exports of traditional electronic components to China, such as printed-circuit boards and diodes, also declined last year compared with 2020, it said. In contrast, sales of high-end integrated circuits and graphics processing unit (GPU) cards, which are used in artificial intelligence applications, increased over the same period. As exports to China fall, Taiwan has forged closer ties with the US and ASEAN to diversify their markets and reduce dependence on China, the ministry said.

Taiwan’s leading edge in semiconductors and other high-tech sectors would play a very important role in forging stronger alliances with democratic countries, headed by incoming US president Donald Trump, to counter the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia, experts said at a forum in Taipei yesterday. Once he is inaugurated, it would be “Trump 2.0,” World United Formosans for Independence chairman Richard Chen said. Trump has appointed a new slate of people to take charge of strategies to “reshape the world order,” as current world economies, international relations and wars are very different from those of his first presidency in 2017 to 2021, Chen said.

Taiwanese manufacturers have a chance to play a key role in the humanoid robot supply chain, Tongtai Machine and Tool Co chairman Yen Jui-hsiung said yesterday. That is because Taiwanese companies are capable of making key parts needed for humanoid robots to move, such as harmonic drives and planetary gearboxes, Yen said. This ability to produce these key elements could help Taiwanese manufacturers “become part of the US supply chain,” he added. Yen made the remarks a day after Nvidia Corp cofounder and chief executive officer Jensen Huang said his company and TSMC are jointly creating new opportunities in areas such as robotics and self-driving cars. However, the biggest obstacle to making humanoid robots more widely available is the high cost, said the head of Tongtai Machine, a major machine tool manufacturer based in Kaohsiung. The current unit cost of humanoid robots is so high that it effectively adds “an extra zero” to the target price, Yen said. However, “reducing the cost of humanoid robots presents an opportunity for Taiwanese key component manufacturers to play a crucial role,” he added.

The nation’s machinery exports to the US amounted to US$7.19 billion last year, surpassing the US$6.86 billion to China to become the largest export destination for the local machinery industry, the Taiwan Association of Machinery Industry (TAMI) said in a report on Jan. 10. It came as some manufacturers brought forward or “front-loaded” US-bound shipments as required by customers ahead of potential tariffs imposed by the new US administration, the association said. During his campaign, US president-elect Donald Trump threatened tariffs of as high as 60 percent on Chinese goods and 10 percent to 20 percent on imports from other countries. Against this backdrop, many local manufacturers received rush orders in recent months, but the association said it remains to be seen if the order momentum would continue after Trump takes office. China’s decision to end tariff reductions on Taiwanese machinery under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) early harvest list in June last year also contributed to the lower exports to the country, the association said. Taiwan’s machinery exports comprise mainly inspection and testing equipment, electronic equipment, and machine tools, the association said.

Gasoline and diesel prices are to increase by NT$0.4 and NT$0.2 per liter respectively this week, as global crude oil prices continued to move higher, CPC Corp, Taiwan (CPC) and Formosa Petrochemical Corp said Sunday. Global crude oil prices rose last week, as the US expanded sanctions on Russia’s oil industry and US commercial crude oil inventories declined for an eighth consecutive week, the companies said in separate statements. Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 1.71 percent last week to US$77.78 a barrel, while Brent increased 1.29 percent to US$80.79, Dow Jones Newswires reported on Saturday.

CHINA

U.S. Vice President-elect JD Vance met with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng on Sunday, one day before he and President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn into office. Vance and Han discussed an array of topics including fentanyl, balancing trade and regional stability, the Trump-Vance transition team said in a statement. Trump invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the inauguration after winning last year's presidential election. Xi has sent Han in his place. Vance's meeting with Han follows a recent phone call between Trump and Xi. During the call, the two leaders discussed issues including TikTok, trade and Taiwan. It was the first known phone call between the pair since Trump's election in November.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that Trump has told advisers he wants to travel to China after he takes office. If the trip happens, it would mark his second visit to China as president. Trump traveled to Beijing in 2017 during a trip to Asia where he visited several other countries.

China issued a 2024-2035 plan on Sunday aimed at building a "strong education nation," state news agency Xinhua said. The plan will explore gradually expanding the scope of free education, establish a system to monitor changes in the school-age population, and optimise the layout of primary and secondary schools as well as kindergartens, Xinhua said. Additionally, it will increase "high-quality" undergraduate enrollment, expand graduate education, and raise the proportion of doctoral students, it said.

The regional bloc ASEAN and China should make headway on a protracted code of conduct for the South China Sea by tackling thorny "milestone issues", including its scope and if it can be legally binding, the Philippines' top diplomat said on Saturday. The South China Sea remains a source of tension between China and neighbours the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia, with ties between Beijing and U.S. ally Manila at their worst in years amid frequent confrontations that have sparked concerns they could spiral into conflict.

FT reports EU should welcome Chinese car factories, says Mercedes chief. Ola Källenius urges Brussels to drop protectionist approach in form of punitive tariffs on China EVs. “Nobody disagrees about the fact that the level playing field is a legitimate discussion. The question is, what tool do you use?” Källenius told the Financial Times in an interview. “Don’t accelerate protectionism because . . . we have much to lose.”

HONG KONG

Suspended
Trading in the shares of both CSMALL (01815.HK) +41% and CHI SILVER GP (00815.HK) was halted with effect from 3:21 pm Friday (17th),
pending the release of an announcement which contains inside information of the companies.

Earnings
SF Holding (6936) reported a 12.34 percent growth in revenue from its express logistics business, supply chain, and international business in December,
totalling 26.44 billion yuan (HK$28.09 billion), driven by promotional activities from e-commerce platforms. The express logistics business generated 19.63 billion yuan, an 8.64 percent increase from the previous year and parcel volume grew by 19.47 percent year-on-year. The stable freight rates and cargo volume for international sea freight lifted its supply chain and international revenue by 24.63 percent year-on-year, reaching 6.8 billion yuan.

Profit Alert

Profit Warning
Sinopharm (1099) yesterday warned that China National Accord Medicines Corporation's net profit is likely to plunge 65 percent in 2024.
The subsidiary, also known as Sinopharm Accord, was hit by lower retail sales and stiffer competition, it said. Sinopharm Accord is expected to record a net profit of up to 561 million yuan (HK$596.3 million) in 2024, down 65 percent from nearly 1.6 billion yuan in 2023. Basic earnings per share are expected to range between 1.01 yuan and 1.37 yuan, compared to 2.87 yuan the previous year. Sinopharm Accord's retail sales were affected by China's outpatient retail unification initiative which led to a lower flow of customers to its stores, as well as intensified market competition. Sinopharm said that this year, the pharmaceutical products supplier will strive to improve store management, optimize its product portfolio and increase sales of its own brands while undergoing a digital transformation to reduce costs. Sinopharm's stake in Sinopharm Accord is more than 56 percent.

Buybacks

AIA (01299.HK) repurchased 1.281 million shares of the company on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Friday (17th) at $54-55 per share, involving approximately $69.927 million. Since the ordinary resolution was passed on May 24, the company has repurchased nearly 486 million shares, accounting for 4.32% of its share capital.

HSI Short Selling Friday 21.4% vs 20.6% Thursday
Top shorts Longfor (960) 40%, Sands China (1928) 39%, Citic (267) 39%, Hang Seng Bank (11) 38%, CK Asset (1113) 37%, Henderson Land (12) 36%, JD Health (6618) 35%, China Res Power (836) 35%, Zhong Sheng (881) 35%, Sinopec (386) 33%, SinoPharm (1099) 33%, BoC Hong Kong (2388) 33%, Kuaishou (1024) 33%, Bidu (9888) 31%, Nongfu Spring (9633) 31%, Xinyi Solar (968) 31%, Geely Auto (175) 30%, Geely (175) 30%, Wharf REIC (1997) 30%, Hengan (1044) 30%, Ali Health (241) 30%, BYD Electronic (285) 29%, China Overseas (688) 29%, Bank of China (3988) 29%, Trip Com (9961) 29%, Lenovo (992) 29%, Xinyi Glass (868) 28%, China Res Land (1109) 27%, ENN Energy (2688) 26%, Li Ning (2331) 26%, CM Bank (3968) 26%, BYD (1211) 26%, CKH (1) 26%, Haier Smarthome (6690) 25%, China Res Mixc (1209) 25%, China Res Beer (291) 25%, JD (9618) 25%.

WATCH

Home hunters snapped up as many as 233 new homes over the weekend with The Reserve taking the lion's share of sales ahead of the Lunar New Year. The Reserve sold as many as 224 of the 280 flats on offer, making it the hottest new project with the most number of sales so far this year. Offering a total of 631 flats, The Reserve is the second phase of Gold Coast Bay in Tuen Mun, developed by Early Light International Estates. The developer, founded by "Toy King" Francis Choi Chee-ming, had received more than 4,500 checks for the 280 flats, making them 15 times oversubscribed. The flats range in size from 304 to 655 square feet, with prices starting from HK$2.42 million after discounts. Nearly 40 percent of the flats on offer cost less than HK$3 million after discounts.

Apart from The Reserve's robust sales, nine other new homes were sold.
Beacon Peak, Shimao's (0813)
luxury residential project near Kowloon Tong, sold three flats by tender for HK$93.66 million.

Meanwhile, a one-bedroom flat at Double Coast I in Kai Tak sold for HK$5.71 million. The project is jointly developed by Wheelock Properties, Henderson Land (0012), China Overseas (0688), and New World Development (0017).

In Yuen Long, Asia Standard International (0129) sold five flats at High Park II for more than HK$21 million.

In the secondary market, Hong Kong's 10 major housing estates saw seven deals over the weekend, five more than a week earlier, while four estates recorded no transactions, Centaline Property said. Louis Chan Wing-kit, Asia Pacific vice chairman of the residential division at Centaline, said overall sentiment remains positive, with transactions hitting a five-week high. With US President Donald Trump taking office today, the market will be waiting to see his policies and stance on interest rates, Chan said, adding that Trump is expected to send positive signals to the market. But with the Lunar New Year fast approaching, buyers and sellers of second-hand homes are expected to keep away from the market until after the festivities, he said.

Dried seafood shops had dim hopes for sales this Lunar New Year, anticipating a 20 percent drop compared to last year. Despite efforts to lower retail prices and adopt a “pile it high and sell it cheap” strategy to attract customers, some businesses remained cautiously optimistic about a slight increase in sales, driven by business clientele. Richard Poon Kuen-fai, managing director of On Kee Dry Seafood, said the festive atmosphere returning to the city this Lunar New Year. He believes citizens may be willing to spend on dried seafood after several months of low spending sentiment.

PICC P&C (02328.HK) announced that, under Chinese accounting standards, the original insurance premium income totaled RMB538.055 billion last year, up 4.3% YoY. Among them, motor vehicle insurance premium income rose by 4.1% YoY, accidental injury and health insurance premium income surged by 9.7% YoY, and agriculture insurance premium income dropped by 5.7% YoY.

The original premiums income of PICC GROUP (01339.HK) as derived from its operating subsidiaries PICC Property and Casualty (PICC P&C), PICC Life and PICC Health for 2024 were RMB538.055 billion, RMB106.003 billion and RMB48.695 billion, up 4.3%, 5.3% and 7.7% YoY, respectively, according to PICC GROUP's announcement.

CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) told some of its creditors that it has enough cash set aside to repay its 2.95% RMB bonds due on January 27, Bloomberg reported, citing sources. The bonds, which have RMB3 billion outstanding, last traded RMB98.4 Wednesday (15th), implying investors are confident the bonds will be repaid. It is not yet clear when or whether the Chinese developer will remit funds to repay the January 27 note, sources divulged. Separately, a batch of 3.45% RMB bonds due in May of CHINA VANKE was priced RMB73 today (17th). The company has US$4.9 billion of bonds maturing or facing redemption options this year, which is the highest annual amount in the company's record and the most among Chinese developers this year, report revealed.

Zhong Shanshan, China's richest man and the founder and chairman of NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK), posted on his WeChat Moments, blasting the four major e-commerce platforms for causing a large number of small and medium merchants to lose or have lost the ability to compete fairly, and a large number of job opportunities have been occupied by platforms, according to Chinese media. Zhong described the four major platforms as meat grinders of China's economy, which "makes us lose the opportunity to outperform in economy" and leads to an increase in internet hostility and violence. However, Zhong did not name the four major e-commerce platforms.

The Insurance Authority of Hong Kong (IA) released the provisional business statistics for the first three quarters of 2024, with total gross premiums reaching $480.8 billion. Of which, new office premiums (excluding Retirement Scheme business) of long term business were $169.6 billion, up by 15.7%, mainly composed of an increase of 18% to $162 billion derived from Non-Linked individual business which can be further broken down into participating business of $141.4 billion and other businesses of $20.7 billion, as well as a fall of 19.7% to $7.2 billion derived from Linked individual business. Some 58,000 Qualifying Deferred Annuity Policies were issued that brought in $3.7 billion or 2.2% of the total premiums for individual business. During the period, new business premiums derived from Mainland visitors dipped by 0.4% YoY to $46.6 billion, representing 27.6% of total new new office premiums for individual business. A majority of these policies were settled at regular intervals. Whole life, critical illness and medical policies accounted for about 59%, 28% and 5% of them respectively. Having regard to the seasonal travelling pattern of Mainland visitors, the related business statistics will be released at semi-annually rather than quarterly intervals from 1Q25.

The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau announced that last year's total gross revenue from different gaming activities amounted to MOP226.782 billion, with VIP baccarat gross revenue surging by 21% YoY to MOP54.764 billion, accounting for 24.1% of the total gross revenue. Last year's VIP baccarat gross revenue was equivalent to 40.5% of the MOP135.228 billion in 2019. After deducting VIP baccarat GGR from last year's total GGR, Macau's mass market revenue last year was MOP172.018 billion, accounting for 75.8% of the total GGR.

The Macau Financial Intelligence Office announced that the total number of suspicious transaction reports (STRs) received last year was 5,245, an increase of 13.67% YoY. Among them, the number of STRs received from games of fortune operators last year was 3,837, up 11.83% YoY, accounting for 73.2% of the total number of STRs.

On the ride of the policies of "one trip per week" and "multiple-entry permits" for travelers to Macau from Zhuhai and Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin, Macau Government Tourism Office (MGTO) expected that Macau's visitor arrivals this year will reach 38-39 million, which is close to the level of 2019, according to a reassessment by the government, MGTO Director Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes was quoted by Radio Macau as saying. The Director also predicted that the average daily number of visitors during the Spring Festival Golden Week this year will be 185,000, with international visitors accounting for about 8,000 of the total.

Friday's closings in EUROPE & US.

DAX 1.2%, CAC 0.98%, FTSE 1.35%
European markets opened higher and worked higher through the day; Mining stocks led on rumours of a Rio Glencore merger but Novo Nordisk -4.3% on news the U.S. government announced it intends to negotiate pricing over the company’s blockbuster weight loss and diabetes drugs.

UK retail sales -0.3% MoM vs F/cast 0.4% rise; which combined with other weak data led to increased expectations that the BoE will cut rates this year; which weakened sterling. That could put pressure on UK listed stocks because of the high proportion of them rely on foreign earnings.

DOW 0.78%, NDX 1.51%, S&P 1%, Russel 2K 0.4%
US markets opened higher through the morning before drifting lower through the afternoon. Big Tech rallied after CPI and PPI showed inflation pressures easing and good banks earnings could suggest a goldilocks scenario for the economy …. But that will very much depend on what Trump does. But the expectation is that there will be deregulation and lower taxes. Crypto rallied.

Intel rallied as the beaten-up chipmaker continues to be a part of takeover speculation following the departure of its CEO in December. The stock, which was booted from the Dow in November, is still down more than 50% in the last 12 months.

Qorvo rallied on news that activist investor Starboard Value had amassed a 7.7% stake in the company. Sources told the paper that the investor is also seeking changes to improve Qorvo’s share price.

Banks JPMorgan Chase 1.92%, Citigroup 1.89% Wells Fargo 1.49%, Amex 0.35%
Ecommerce Meta 0.24%, Apple 0.75%, Amazon 2.39%, Netflix 1.87%, Disney 0.53%, Zoom Video -1.72%, Alphabet 1.62% and Microsoft 1.05%,
Tech NXP Semi 2.18%, Nvidia 3.1%, Micron 3.07%, AMD 2.55%, Skyworks 2.41%
Industrial/Discretionary Boeing 1.28%, Caterpillar 1.44%, Simon Property 0.83%, Kohl’s 1.17%, Nordstrom -0.12%, Gap 3.17%, United Airlines 1.2%, Carnival 3.19%, Wynn Resorts 2.63%
Energy Chevron 1.31%, Exxon Mobil 0.9%,
Consumer Staples Campbell Soup -0.71% General Mills 0.79%, JM Smucker -0.39%

DAILY DATA
USD steady, Bitcoin -0.36% at 103,457.88 (Monday morning Asia), VIX -3.8% at 15.97,
US T10 up 1 bpts to 4.617% and T2 up 4 bpts at 4.278%
OIL Brent -0.62%, WTI -1%
Gold -0.4%, Silver -2.14%, Copper -2.03% Platinum 1.75%, Palladium 0.95%.

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Asian Macro Initial Thoughts; US markets closed so lighter trading volumes. Trump takes power; 100 executive orders expected. Davos starts but not the main focus today. (2025)
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